In chapter 2 of The Mythical Man-Month, Brooks suggested as a scheduling guideline that five-sixths (83%) of time on a “software task” would be spent on things other than coding, which puts a pretty low cap on productivity gains from speeding up just the coding. And even if we assume LLMs reduce coding time to zero, and go with the more generous No Silver Bullet formulation which merely predicts no order-of-magnitude gain from a single development, that’s still less than the gain Brooks himself believed could come from hiring good human programmers. From chapter 3 of The Mythical Man-Month:
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